Tak perlu panik hutang lebih RM1 trilion, kata ahli ekonomi

Robin Augustin | May 21, 2018

Beliau berkata hutang negara mesti berkait dengan potensi aliran tunai tetapi kerajaan mesti mengawasi paras hutang.

Barjoyai berkata hakikatnya Malaysia sebuah negara dinamik dengan ekonomi yang kuat, kaya dengan sumber asli dan komoditi. (Gambar Facebook)

PETALING JAYA: Seorang ahli ekonomi berkata rakyat tidak perlu panik tentang hutang negara yang mencecah RM1 trilion, tetapi kerajaan berhati-hati menguruskan perbelanjaan dan hutang.

Barjoyai Bardai dari Universiti Tun Abdul Razak berkata hutang mesti sentiasa berkait dengan potensi aliran tunai.

“Kalau anda perhatikan hutang dalam tempoh 30 tahun lalu, kita menuju ke arah Yunani, tetapi hakikatnya kita negara yang dinamik dengan ekonomi yang kuat, kaya dengan sumber asli dan komoditi.

“Kalau negara ini sebuah syarikat, secara asasnya, kita bercakap tentang kemampuannya menanggung dan membayar hutang. Kita dalam keadaan yang agak baik kerana struktur ekonomi yang sedia ada.” 

Beliau mengulas kenyataan Perdana Menteri Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad hari ini yang berkata hutang negara mencecah RM1 trilion dan langkah-langkah penting perlu diambil supaya Malaysia boleh pulih dengan cepat.

Barjoyai berkata sekalipun yang terburuk berlaku, iaitu satu resesi, negara akan terus bertahan.

Meskipun begitu, kerajaan perlu mengawasi hutangnya supaya ia tidak bertumbuh lebih pantas berbanding hasil negara.

“Kami tidak perlu panik tetapi kita perlu berhati-hati dengan hutang RM1 trilion, dan kerajaan mesti pastikan kita ada kapasiti untuk menanggung hutang ini kerana ia menentukan penarafan kredit dan untuk pastikan kita tidak jatuh muflis.”

Beliau menambah resesi secara purata berlaku setiap 10 tahun dan ia boleh berlaku bila-bila masa dari sekarang, tetapi kerajaan tidak patut mengelak.

“Resesi berlaku secara alami. Jika kita cuba elak, seperti sebelum ini dengan menyalurkan wang ke dalam projek mega, kita hanya menangguhkan resesi, tetapi ia akan tetap melanda juga nanti..

“Itu cuma kelegaan tempoh masa pendek,” katanya, dan berkata ia dilakukan pada 1994 dan 2009.

“Apa yang perlu ialah memastikan rizab dan kecairan yang tinggi, dan kerajaan mengambil langkah penjimatan bagi memastikan negara tidak berbelanja lebih daripada kemampuan menjana pendapatan.”

Barjoyai berkata penting bagi kerajaan untuk melihat rancangan kewangan 10 dan 20 tahun mendatang, seperti yang dibuat sebelum ini, bagi mempersiapkan negara dan rakyat untuk masa depan.

Sumber: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/bahasa/2018/05/21/tak-perlu-panik-hutang-lebih-rm1-trilion-kata-ahli-ekonomi/

No need to panic over RM1 trillion debt, says economist

Robin Augustin | May 21, 2018

He says a country's debts must be related to potential cash flow, but the government must keep track of debt levels.

Universiti Tun Abdul Razak’s Barjoyai Bardai says the reality is that Malaysia is a dynamic country with a robust economy, rich in natural resources and commodities. (Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA: An economist says Malaysians don’t have to panic over the country’s RM1 trillion debt, though the government has to be careful in managing its expenses and debts.

Speaking to FMT, Universiti Tun Abdul Razak’s Barjoyai Bardai said debts must always be related to potential cash flow.

“If you just look at debts over the past 30 years, we are headed down the path of Greece, but the reality is that we are a dynamic country with a robust economy, rich in natural resources and commodities.

“If a country was a company, essentially, we’re talking about that company’s ability to service and pay its debts. We’re doing quite okay because of the established structure of the economy.”

He was commenting on Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s statement earlier today that the country’s debt had reached an alarming RM1 trillion and that important measures were needed so that Malaysia could recover quickly.

Barjoyai said that even if the worse were to happen, a recession, the country would still survive.

  

Still, he said it was important for the government to keep track of its debts so that it didn’t grow at a faster rate than the country’s revenue.

“We don’t have to panic but we should be wary over the RM1 trillion debt, and the government must make sure we have the capacity to service this debt as it will determine the credit rating and ensure we don’t go bankrupt.”

He added that a recession occurs once every 10 years on average and that one was due any time now, but the government shouldn’t try to avoid it.

“Recessions happen naturally. If we try to avoid it, like we have in the past by pumping money into mega projects, we can only defer the recession, but it will hit us heavily later on.

“It’s just a short-term reprieve,” he said, noting that this had been done in 1994 and 2009.

“What is important is ensuring we have high reserves and liquidity, and that belt-tightening measures are adopted by the government to make sure the country isn’t spending more than its ability to generate income.”

Barjoyai said it was crucial that the government now look at financial planning 10 and 20 years ahead, as it used to in the past, to better prepare the country and people for the future.

Link: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/05/21/no-need-to-panic-over-rm1-trillion-debt-says-economist/